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Home Page > Finance > Currency Trading > AceTrader-Daily Market Outlook -26-8-2011
Posted: Aug 25, 2011 |Comments: 0 |
Market Review ? 25/08/2011 21:58 GMT
Dollar gains ahead of Bernanke?s speech at Jackson Hole
The greenback rose against other major currencies on Thursday on renewed risk aversion together with the selloff in U.S. and European equities on speculation that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will not unveil further monetary easing at Fed?s annual economic conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Friday.
Versus the Japanese yen, although the greenback dropped briefly from Asian high of 77.15 to 76.85, the greenback rose strongly on renewed cross selling of jpy on speculation that Japan?s package may boost USD funding as Japan?s $100 billion credit line unveiled on Wednesday for companies investing overseas, tapping its foreign reserves despite being called ?measures to address JPY appreciation.? The pair eventually climbed to a 2-week high of 77.70 in NY afternoon on renewed risk aversion before retreating.
The single currency traded narrowly in Asia and then rose to its day high of 1.4475 in European morning on the initial gain in European stocks before retreating. Despite euro?s recovery to 1.4457 in NY morning, price then tumbled sharply to 1.4328 due to the selloff of U.S. and European equities together with comments from spokesmen for the IMF and German Finance Ministry before staging a recovery to 1.4389.
The IMF spokesman said ?global economic activity has weakened, become more uneven, outlook has deteriorated.? Later, the spokesman from German Finance Ministry said ?we are not planning a general short-selling ban.?
The British pound traded sideways in Asian session and briefly recovered to 1.6398 in European morning. However, cable tumbled in tandem with euro to 1.6260 before stabilising.
On the data front, U.S. initial jobless claims were worse-than-expected at 417K vs forecast of 405K, the prior figure was revised up to 412K. U.K. CBI retail sales balance for Aug. was weaker than expected at -14 vs forecast of -5.
The DJI fell by 170.89 points, or 1.51%, to 11149.82. FTSE-100, CAC-40, and DAX were down by 1.44%, 0.65%, and 1.71% respectively.
Data to be released on Friday include:
Japan national CPI, core CPI, Tokyo CPI, Swiss KOF indicator, U.S. GDP annualised, GDP deflator, PCE core, U. Michigan survey.
Technical Outlook by AceTrader on EUR/USD
EUR/USD ? 1.4388? Once again, there is no end to recent intra-day wide
swings in the single currency as market participants positioned n then unwound
their positions ahead of today?s key speech by Fed chief Bernanke. Despite intra
-day bounce to 1.4475 in European morning, failure to re-test previous day?s
1.4482 high prompted st speculators to turn short on euro, price later tumbled
to 1.4328 in NY morning but short-covering quickly lifted the pair to 1.4389.
Looking at the daily & hourly charts, although y?day?s weakness suggests
downside bias is seen, euro remains confined inside recent established broad
range of 1.4259-1.4500 n below lower lvl needed to signal early fall fm 1.4518
has resumed n bring stronger correction of the erratic rise fm 1.4055 (Aug?s
low) to 1.4191 (70.7% r), however, as the hourly oscillators? readings wud be in
o/sold territory on such move, reckon minor sup at 1.4104 wud hold fm here.
Today, as price is currently trading below both 21-hr n 55-hr emas, trad-
ing euro fm short side is favoured. Only abv 1.4430 wud risk gain to 1.4475/82
but only break of 1.4537 signals upmove fm 1.3838 has resumed, 1.4580, then
1.4696.
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